Ethiopia is once again on the brink of conflict as tensions in the Tigray region escalate, threatening to reignite war with Eritrea and further destabilize the Horn of Africa. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is engaged in a power struggle with the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA), a body imposed by dictator Abiy Ahmed in 2023 as part of the Pretoria Agreement that ended the devastating 2020–2022 civil war. This internal rift has resulted in renewed clashes, with TPLF-aligned forces seizing control of key areas. Reports suggest that Eritrea is backing these factions, potentially obstructing Ethiopia’s ambitions for sea access.
Adding to the instability is the incomplete implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, including the failure to fully disarm Tigray Defense Forces and the continued presence of Eritrean troops on Ethiopian soil. These developments have raised serious concerns about a possible new war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which would have severe consequences for regional stability and humanitarian conditions.
Crackdown on Press Freedom and Opposition
While the country spirals into chaos, Abiy Ahmed’s authoritarian rule has intensified, marked by the mass arrest of journalists, opposition figures, and activists critical of his government. His administration has aggressively silenced dissenting voices, targeting independent media and detaining reporters who expose government abuses. The suppression of free press has drawn widespread international condemnation, with human rights organizations warning that Ethiopia is descending into a dictatorship.
The systematic crackdown on political opposition is particularly severe in the Amhara region, where Abiy’s government has been accused of arresting and persecuting Amhara activists, politicians, and community leaders. The ruling party has labeled Amhara nationalist groups as threats, using security forces to crush any form of resistance. Reports indicate that thousands of ethnic Amharas have been detained, tortured, or forcibly disappeared under Abiy’s regime.
Background: Ethiopia’s Bloody Conflict and the Rise of Dictatorship
The 2020–2022 war between Ethiopia and the TPLF left hundreds of thousands dead, making it one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century. The war ended in 2022 with the Pretoria Agreement, but Tigray remains devastated, with its cities in ruins and its people struggling to recover.
Historically, Ethiopia has faced ethnic tensions and authoritarian rule. From 1991 to 2012, Meles Zenawi governed Ethiopia with a TPLF-dominated coalition, marginalizing ethnic groups like the Oromo and Amhara. Under Abiy Ahmed, oppression has only worsened, as he consolidates power through force, violating human rights and eliminating political rivals.
In addition to domestic repression, Abiy’s geopolitical ambitions have fueled tensions with Eritrea. The presence of Eritrean troops in Ethiopia remains a major flashpoint, as their involvement in the Tigray war has been linked to widespread human rights abuses, including massacres and sexual violence. Abiy’s failure to remove these foreign forces has further undermined Ethiopia’s sovereignty and fueled public outrage.
Humanitarian Catastrophe and the Future of Ethiopia
The continued turmoil has led to a worsening humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced and in urgent need of aid. Ethiopia’s economy is crumbling under the weight of war, repression, and political instability. With Abiy’s government prioritizing power over peace, the country faces a bleak future, with growing fears of another civil war.
International pressure is mounting on Abiy Ahmed’s dictatorship, with calls for an end to political persecution, the release of imprisoned journalists and opposition figures, and accountability for human rights violations. However, unless immediate action is taken to address Ethiopia’s deepening crisis, the country risks plunging into another prolonged conflict that could destabilize the entire region.
