Ethiopia is facing an escalating political crisis rooted in a deepening power imbalance and the resurgence of single-party dominance, sparking concern among citizens, opposition groups, and international observers. Analysts warn that the current trajectory threatens not only democratic reform but also long-term national stability.
Ethiopia into deepening authoritarianism, civil unrest, and institutional collapse
The Prosperity Party (PP), which evolved from the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) in 2019, now holds a near-total grip on political power. Although it was initially presented as a unifying force meant to transcend ethnic federalism and foster national cohesion, critics argue it has instead concentrated authority in the hands of a narrow elite, stifled political pluralism, and marginalized opposition voices.
Growing Centralization of Power
Under the leadership of Abiy Ahmed, who came to power with promises of democratic transition and reform, the country has seen growing centralization rather than decentralization. Once-vibrant regional voices and opposition parties have been either co-opted, fragmented, or outright suppressed. Several opposition leaders remain in detention, and independent media outlets face mounting restrictions.
Ethnic Tensions and Federal Dilemmas
The political crisis is further complicated by Ethiopia’s ethnically based federal system. The Prosperity Party’s efforts to centralize power are viewed by many ethnic groups as a threat to their autonomy and identity. This has led to repeated flare-ups of violence, particularly in Oromia, Amhara, and Tigray regions.
In Tigray, though the active conflict has subsided after the Pretoria Agreement, tensions remain high, with regional leaders accusing the federal government of breaching terms related to self-governance and reconstruction aid. In Oromia, a low-level insurgency continues, fueled by feelings of political and cultural marginalization.
Civil society groups, religious leaders, and local NGOs are calling for a renewed national dialogue that includes all political stakeholders—both inside and outside the country. They emphasize that lasting peace and development require genuine power-sharing, federal autonomy, and respect for minority rights.
Silencing the Opposition
One of the most troubling aspects of Abiy’s rule is the relentless crackdown on opposition voices. Prominent political leaders have been imprisoned under vague charges of terrorism or incitement. The 2021 general elections—hailed by the government as a democratic milestone—were boycotted by major opposition parties due to widespread restrictions and lack of fair conditions. In many parts of the country, elections did not take place at all due to security concerns, giving Abiy’s party a convenient excuse to claim unchallenged power.
Rather than building consensus or fostering dialogue, Abiy’s administration has preferred the route of political annihilation. Dissent is no longer seen as a part of democratic discourse but as a threat to national security—a dangerous mindset that has led to state-sponsored intimidation, arrests, and even extrajudicial killings.
Media Suppression and Propaganda
Under Abiy’s leadership, Ethiopia has seen a disturbing return to media suppression. Independent journalists face surveillance, harassment, and detention. The government frequently shuts down the internet and censors critical media, especially during moments of political tension or conflict. Pro-government outlets and state media, meanwhile, aggressively promote a narrative that frames Abiy as a visionary leader and any opposition as enemies of the state.
By controlling the flow of information and criminalizing dissent, Abiy has created an environment where truth is obscured, and public trust is manipulated. The regime’s control over communication networks is not merely about stability—it is a calculated effort to dominate public perception and silence accountability.
Erosion of Institutions
A fundamental characteristic of authoritarian regimes is the erosion of independent institutions, and Abiy’s Ethiopia is no exception. Courts, the electoral board, and law enforcement agencies have increasingly fallen under executive control. The judiciary rarely acts as a check on the government’s actions. Electoral processes are engineered to ensure predetermined outcomes. Civil society groups operate under constant fear, and watchdog institutions are either neutered or absorbed by the state.
The centralization of power in Abiy’s hands has effectively turned democratic institutions into rubber stamps for executive authority. This not only undermines the rule of law but sets a dangerous precedent for future leaders.
Personality Cult and Populism
Abiy has cultivated a strongman image, drawing from religious symbolism, nationalist rhetoric, and populist slogans. His public appearances often blur the line between political leadership and spiritual authority, appealing to emotion rather than reason. This calculated populism has led to a personality cult, where questioning Abiy is framed as unpatriotic or even treasonous.
This style of leadership might rally short-term support, but it is fundamentally corrosive to democracy. It undermines pluralism, discourages critical thinking, and breeds a society conditioned to follow rather than question.
International Implications and Isolation
Abiy’s foreign policy has also taken a turn towards insularity and defiance. His government has rejected international investigations into human rights abuses, expelled foreign aid workers, and criticized global institutions for perceived bias. Once hailed as a Nobel Peace Prize winner for his rapprochement with Eritrea, Abiy now finds himself increasingly isolated from the international community.
This has real consequences: economic sanctions, suspended aid, and lost credibility. Ethiopia, once seen as a beacon of African development, now risks becoming a cautionary tale of democratic backsliding.
A New Path Beyond Abiy Ahmed’s Rule
The current trajectory under Abiy Ahmed’s administration has led Ethiopia into deepening authoritarianism, civil unrest, and institutional collapse. What began as a moment of democratic promise has devolved into a climate of fear, repression, and unchecked power. The continued dominance of a single party and the silencing of dissent have not only stifled democracy but also endangered the nation’s stability and unity.
To rescue Ethiopia from further deterioration, it is essential to move beyond the centralized and exclusionary rule of Abiy Ahmed. The future of the country must not be dictated by one man or one party, but shaped by the collective will of its diverse people. This means dismantling authoritarian structures and fostering genuine dialogue among all political parties, regional movements, civil society organizations, and journalists.
A national reconciliation process rooted in justice, truth, and mutual respect is urgently needed. Free press, independent institutions, and meaningful power-sharing must become the pillars of a new political order. Only through inclusive collaboration can Ethiopia rebuild trust, restore peace, and chart a democratic path forward.
The time has come to shift the focus from individual power to collective responsibility—toward a system where every Ethiopian, regardless of ethnicity or political affiliation, has a voice and a stake in the future.
