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Rising Tensions Spark Fresh Fears of Conflict in Tigray

TPLF Still Unregistered as a New Political Party

The TPLF, under the leadership of Getachew Reda, plans to hold a general assembly.

After the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) issued a warning that the TPLF’s registration would be canceled following May 13, 2025 (Ginbot 5, 2017 E.C.), the party has now officially announced that it still remains unregistered as a new political entity. TPLF stated that the failure to regain its legal status could lead to serious consequences for its existence.

Based on the time frame set by NEBE, only two weeks remain before the TPLF is completely deregistered. The party has declared again that it will not re-register under any form.

In a statement released on April 24, 2025 (Miyazia 16, 2017 E.C.), the TPLF urged mediators, the African Union Panel, and the international community to recognize the danger posed by the failure to restore the TPLF’s legal recognition and to intervene accordingly.

The statement also criticized the federal government’s behavior as undermining the Pretoria Agreement and indicated that the TPLF had submitted the matter to the AU Panel. The Panel reportedly supported the restoration of TPLF’s legal recognition and advised that the party should not need to register as a “new entity,” although the Panel’s final decision was postponed pending its next session.

However, the TPLF pointed out that the AU Panel has not convened yet, and thus has failed to assess both the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement and the alleged violations.

Meanwhile, the TPLF Central Committee, led by Getachew Reda, decided to hold a General Assembly to save the party from collapse and to restore its legal status.

In a press release dated April 28, 2025 (Miyazia 20, 2017 E.C.), Getachew Reda’s team announced: “We will convene a General Assembly. We will work to ensure our party retains legal status. We will put aside personal and group interests and make a historic decision.”

The statement added that: “Before the NEBE’s deadline expires, we will hold a General Assembly in a manner that is legally permissible, involving all party members and the people of Tigray.”

Currently, TPLF remains suspended: the Election Board decided during its February 12, 2025 (Yekatit 4, 2017 E.C.) meeting that TPLF should be barred from any political activity for three months. The party was sanctioned due to serious violations, and it was expected that during the suspension it would fulfill required corrective actions.

The Board had also warned that if the TPLF failed to take corrective action within the three-month suspension, its registration would be permanently canceled.

Based on the NEBE decision, the suspension will expire at the end of May 2025.


Detailed Analysis

  1. Background Context

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), once one of the dominant forces in Ethiopia’s federal political system, has faced significant challenges since the start of the Tigray conflict in 2020. Following the Pretoria Agreement of November 2022, which ended the armed conflict between the federal government and TPLF forces, the TPLF sought to reintegrate into Ethiopia’s political landscape.

However, political reintegration proved complex. One major obstacle has been the TPLF’s legal status as a registered political party. The NEBE, Ethiopia’s electoral body, suspended TPLF’s registration citing major breaches of national laws, including involvement in armed rebellion and the failure to comply with political party regulations.

The failure to regain legal recognition has left the TPLF in a precarious position, as it cannot officially participate in national political processes.


  1. Current Situation

The TPLF’s recent announcement that it remains unregistered confirms that despite the Pretoria Agreement and months of political negotiations, the party has not resolved its legal status.

NEBE’s warning of permanent deregistration places the TPLF under immense pressure: only two weeks remain before its official erasure as a political party.

The party’s refusal to re-register as a “new entity” stems from the fear that doing so would imply an admission of dissolution or guilt, undermining its historical status and political legitimacy. TPLF believes its previous recognition should be restored directly.

This position reflects the wider tension between legal requirements and political identity. For the TPLF, survival as an institution is about more than paperwork—it is about preserving political legacy, credibility among Tigrayans, and influence in Ethiopia.


  1. International Dynamics

The TPLF’s call for intervention from the African Union and international community highlights its strategy to internationalize the issue.

The Pretoria Agreement, brokered with heavy international involvement, emphasized reintegration and normalization. From the TPLF’s perspective, the federal government’s delay in restoring their legal status amounts to a breach of that agreement.

However, the AU Panel’s slow response indicates that international mechanisms are sluggish and perhaps divided on the TPLF’s case. The AU’s hesitancy may reflect concerns about setting precedents for other armed groups or political factions across Africa.

Thus, the TPLF’s reliance on external actors remains a gamble—it can draw sympathy and pressure on Addis Ababa, but also reveals the party’s weakened internal leverage.


  1. Internal Challenges

Recognizing the critical nature of the situation, the TPLF Central Committee decided to convene a General Assembly.

This move signals an internal attempt to rally members, redefine leadership structures if necessary, and show NEBE (and observers) that the party is willing to act constructively and legally.

By emphasizing unity (“putting aside personal and group interests”), the TPLF aims to avoid internal splits that could further weaken it during this crisis.

However, organizing such a General Assembly in a short time frame—under political and legal pressures—will be extremely difficult. Logistical challenges, internal dissent, and skepticism from NEBE remain major obstacles.


  1. The Legal Implications

Legally, NEBE’s stance is clear: the TPLF was given a three-month suspension to correct its errors. Failure to comply would lead to deletion from the registry.

As the deadline approaches, unless the TPLF holds its Assembly and satisfies NEBE’s demands, it faces almost certain deregistration.

Deregistration would not merely be a bureaucratic problem; it would politically marginalize the TPLF, limit its participation in national elections, and complicate its relations with other federal and regional actors.

Moreover, it could deepen political instability in Tigray, where many still view the TPLF as the legitimate representative of their interests.


  1. Broader Political Consequences

If the TPLF is deregistered:

Federal-Tigray relations may deteriorate, jeopardizing the fragile peace established by the Pretoria Agreement.

Tigrayan politics may fragment, with new political movements or armed groups filling the vacuum.

National politics may become even more polarized, as the TPLF’s marginalization could radicalize segments of Tigrayan society.

Internationally, the Ethiopian government may face renewed scrutiny and pressure for allegedly undermining the Pretoria Agreement.

Conversely, if the TPLF successfully holds its Assembly and regains legal status, it could emerge politically rejuvenated, albeit under tighter federal scrutiny.


Conclusion

The situation surrounding the TPLF’s legal status is emblematic of the broader challenges facing Ethiopia’s fragile post-conflict transition. It reflects the complex interplay between legal frameworks, political legitimacy, international diplomacy, and internal party dynamics.

With only days left before a decisive deadline, the TPLF stands at a crossroads. Its ability to organize a credible General Assembly, navigate legal hurdles, and maintain unity will determine not only its survival but also the broader trajectory of Ethiopian politics in the years ahead.

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