By Ambassador Media May 2025
Asmara/Addis Ababa – Despite a peace accord that once promised a new era of regional cooperation, Ethiopia and Eritrea now find themselves on a collision course once again. The relationship between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has soured drastically, as mutual suspicion, cross-border interference, and geopolitical competition threaten to ignite a broader conflict in the Horn of Africa.
Peace in Name Only
In 2018, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning accord between Abiy and Isaias ended two decades of hostility, formally closing the chapter on the brutal 1998–2000 border war. However, behind the diplomatic smiles, real reconciliation never took root.
The peace deal, while historic, was largely top-down and lacked grassroots engagement. With no follow-up mechanisms or inclusive processes, tensions re-emerged once the shared enemy—the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)—was weakened after the 2020–2022 Tigray War.
Tigray Fallout and Border Provocations
Eritrean troops supported the Ethiopian federal army during the conflict, committing alleged atrocities in Tigray. Yet, Eritrea was excluded from the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that ended the war. Feeling sidelined, Asmara began repositioning its forces along the border, citing concerns about TPLF remnants and Ethiopia’s intentions.
Tensions escalated further in early 2025 when Eritrean-backed opposition fighters clashed with Ethiopian federal forces in northern Tigray, near the town of Zalambessa. Ethiopia has since accused Eritrea of harboring and training anti-government insurgents, including exiled ethnic factions and monarchist revivalists.
Red Sea Dispute: Strategic Access and Sovereignty Clashes
At the heart of the current impasse lies Ethiopia’s ambition for access to the Red Sea. Abiy Ahmed has declared maritime access a national security priority, pursuing deals with Somaliland for naval and commercial port rights. This has infuriated Eritrea, which views the move as a threat to its sovereignty and influence.
In retaliation, Eritrea has reinvigorated ties with Ethiopia’s regional rivals, including Egypt and Somalia, forming what analysts call a “counterweight axis” to Addis Ababa’s ambitions.
Shadow Wars: Mutual Support for Opposition Groups
Adding fuel to the fire is the covert support each government is allegedly providing to opposition forces across the border:
Ethiopia is accused of backing Eritrean political dissidents, including members of the Eritrean Democratic Alliance (EDA) and the Red Sea Afar Democratic Organization (RSADO), who operate from Tigray and Afar regions.
Eritrea, in turn, has allegedly offered sanctuary and military training to Ethiopian insurgent groups like Ginbot 7 remnants, Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) splinter factions, and anti-Abiy coalitions formed in exile.
This proxy-style confrontation is increasingly destabilizing both nations internally, with reports of assassinations, arms smuggling, and propaganda campaigns on both sides.
Regional Fallout
The deteriorating situation threatens not only Ethiopia and Eritrea but the broader Horn of Africa. The African Union and IGAD have called for urgent diplomatic dialogue, warning that another conflict could reverse gains made in the region’s fragile recovery.
So far, both Abiy and Isaias have dismissed calls for external mediation. Their mutual mistrust, deeply rooted in ideology and history, continues to block meaningful dialogue.
Outlook
What began as a hopeful peace between two bitter enemies has devolved into a cold war filled with subversion, territorial posturing, and proxy battles. Without serious regional and international engagement, Ethiopia and Eritrea risk dragging the Horn of Africa into another prolonged and devastating conflict.
